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Is the oil irreplaceable? Precautionary principle vs.

To answer this question we analyze the evolution of different primary energy sources.

As you can see over the past 45 years, oil has been the main source of energy and its consumption has continued to grow until reaching a peak in 2008.

consumption of other fossil fuels has also been increasing but not reaching the levels of oil. It should be noted a dramatic increase in coal consumption in recent years.

and nuclear electricity generation, is significantly lower than fossil fuels. And renewable energy (geothermal, solar, wind and biofuels) just get off the ground.

But to see the relationships between different energy sources is more useful to represent the graph in relative terms. That is, as a fraction of total primary energy use at all times.

In this diagram, we can see how the share of oil peaked in 1973 followed by a sharp decline until 1985, then remains to find, to begin to fall around the year 2000.

The coal is an opposite behavior of coal. At low oil increased participation of coal. Ie part oil is being replaced by coal.

The fall of oil during 1973-85 was much less pronounced than the increase of coal, this was due to the nuclear industry development.

In the last decade, oil has fallen back, and this decline has been entirely absorbed by the carbon
. The much heralded "nuclear renaissance" has not taken place, in fact is declining slowly.

To explain, this graph is to take a look at the evolution of energy prices.

As can be seen, when the fuel price increases, their participation is reduced. It is obvious that the peak of 1973 was due to rising oil prices. Between 1985 and 2000, fuel prices were similar, so the proportion remained constants. But from the last decade there is a difference in the price of fuel.

response to the question of title. If oil is replaceable ... in fact we are already replacing.
If in the last decade has been able to meet global energy demand is due to coal has increased their participation at the cost of oil.

But the question is .... Can we replace oil at a pace that is likely to decline? As seen
coal and gas production may increase to a very high rate. In principle if they could replace oil, but this raises two problems:

1) Increased emissions of greenhouse gases
2) depletion of reserves.

gas reserves and coal are not infinite, so sooner or later (rather sooner) they also run out. So the problem will be even more serious.

What we have to replace oil?
Hydraulics develops slowly enough to maintain their participation ago to ask for miracles.
nuclear renaissance does not seem that this taking place. We can only
renewables .... if that line has barely managed to peel off soil after a decade of incentives and subsidies.

Can renewables can save the ballot?

As seen in the graph above, the evolution of the energy is very dependent on their relative price.
This is tricky, since it depends on each energy source and there are bonuses, incentives etc. But we can make some estimate. For example, with a total remuneration of 80 € / MWh of wind energy is a profitable business in Spain. This equates to about $ 60 per barrel oil equivalent.

words, wind power is already cheaper than oil but unfortunately .... not competing with oil, but gas and coal ... and these continue to be cheaper.

current Leaving the free market, oil will be replaced by gas and coal, until they are exhausted or we suffocation ... whichever comes first. It is therefore essential to correct this shortcoming of the market and promote the development of renewable energy versus fossil fuels.

Another question is ... Can renewables grow at a pace that is needed? Can I create all the necessary infrastructure in time we have?
We have a precedent that can help us resolve this issue: The development of nuclear energy. Overlaying

both curves, it appears that the renewable is following the same evolution than nuclear but with 34 years apart.



O in absolute terms about 600MTEP (figure also suggests the IEA in its last report)
This amount of energy equivalent, would compensate for a decline of 2% of global oil production in the same period time.

Multiply by 5 the current generation of renewable energy is a very difficult challenge but not impossible.

Therefore, I believe that at least through 2020, oil is perfectly substitutable.

Note: All data used in this entry are removed from the database "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010" and then I made approximations and rounding brutal. (priced above). Not intend to give accurate and precise values \u200b\u200bof energy consumption, simply give an order of magnitude.

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Patti is back! Family of Oscar Bouvier


The news of the Oscar identification was very strong for us, is a mixture of joy, sadness, anxiety, and other feelings that cause a situation like this, but everything felt like a victory of those who fought against impunity, silence, lies, ignorance, indifference, prejudice, individualism and the complicity of so many who aid, abet and justified many heinous crimes.
is a new phase in which we must reconstruct what happened, to piece together this story, pass new searches for truth and justice. Oscar has made his mark by which we walk. Not give up on the ideals of freedom, equality, solidarity, sovereignty and social justice and that he had survived in us.
long coexisted with the theory of the two demons that were exercised heavily by the media, employees of the corporate media, economic and political benefit from the dictatorship that sought the destruction of Argentina, and then with the installation of neoliberalism is to deepen the country dependent model, which did much damage to the country. These political, economic and media underpinned the impunity of the executive arm of the dictatorship, also ensuring their own impunity, breaded by the dome of the church blessed the murderers and also for Justice that was functional, by act or omission, State terrorism.
Since 2003, Kirchner's presidency, and a substantial change in HR policy, so put off by previous governments, we trials failed to reach today are held throughout the country who can restore dignity and build a coherent narrative of what happened during the dictatorship. It is also necessary that the murderers are imprisoned during the course of the trial and serve their sentences in ordinary prisons and underprivileged.
The presence of many judges who served during the dictatorship and are entrenched in their desks providing injustice, makes judgments dilate, favoring the defendants and their defenses, putting permanent barriers, giving privileges to the arrest and criminal proceedings these genocidal victims did not give any opportunity to defend. The most incredible
is that these murderers, after all these years, still keeping the covenants of silence on the whereabouts of many missing and appropriate children, proud of their ideology and their heinous crimes, they have not a shred of dignity to take charge of what they did , so demand for these animals to tell us once and for all, where are the colleagues.
is inescapable remember the pain of people who struggled to find Oscar, especially his father, my grandfather, Alfred Bouvier, who was active in human rights organizations looking for her son with all his might, renouncing the UCR in December 1986 - party to which he was affiliated for 55 years, having held the secretariat ad-hoc party, and never a paid position, due to the project of Due Obedience and Full Stop and like my grandmother María Inés Delgado Aurelia could not live for the rematch.
We also want to especially thank the Argentine Forensic Anthropology Team, for their great work in finding and identification of many colleagues who regain their identity after many years. The recovery of his remains, so that finally we can fire them and enhance the profile of the popular fighter who true to his convictions, offered their lives for the cause of liberation of the people. Thank you from the feeling and commitment to the Mothers of the Plaza, my colleagues CHILDREN with whom we share years of struggle, and in general all those who adhere to this cause.
The meeting with the identity of Oscar Alfredo Bouvier on November 5, 2010, when they meet 55 years after 34 years as NN undeservedly remain buried in the Cementerio Municipal de Santa Fe is a great value. The words of the dictator Videla about the lack of organization of the "disappeared" is not dead nor alive, is gone, "crumble with the emergence of each of the remains of our loved ones are found and with them their identity. Oscar and I appeared to be a key historical moment to appear, we have deleting the words of the dictator's genocidal murderer's Oscar Has Become!

* We thank the space generously provided us

UNR Text read by Peter Bouvier Thursday at a press conference held by the identification of his father murdered by the dictatorship of Alfredo Oscar Bouvier, disappeared for 34 years.

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provide a conference Press


Relatives and friends of Oscar Alfredo Bouvier, a member of the Peronist Youth disappeared during the dictatorship, whose remains were found weeks ago, held a press conference Thursday at 11 in the South Hall the seat of government of the University Nacional de Rosario (UNR), located on Maipu 1065.
The conference
relatives and friends of Oscar, will provide details about the investigation that led to locate the remains of missing activist in a cemetery in Santa Fe Oscar Alfredo Bouvier, Montonero, a young activist, who died at age 21 by the military-civilian dictatorship, was identified in late November by the Argentine Forensic Anthropology Team (EAAF) as the third body which had been found in Canyon, along with Roberto De Vicenzo and Ruben Forteaga, also identified this years. Bouvier had been transferred to the cemetery of Santa Fe where he remained as NN 34.

"The news is very strong, but very necessary, it is a victory for those who struggle for historical truth and seek justice for many years," said the week when he learned of the discovery, Peter Bouvier, son of missing activist , and member of the group HIJOS Rosario.

On 27 September 1976 the revolutionary Peronism five militants were seized by the task forces driving the Gendarmerie Commander Feced Augustine.

that morning, are kidnapped the wife of De Vicenzo, Miriam Susan Moore and a co-membership of it, Antonio Angel Lopez. In the afternoon have been kidnapped also De Vicenzo Oscar Alfredo Forteaga and Bouvier, is believed to be near the fridge Swift.

Shortly after, three bodies were found in Canyon by locals, with signs of having been harassed. Thirty years after that discovery, the identification work EAAF allowed earlier this year to detect that the two bodies remained as NN in Barrancas Cemetery belonged to De Vicenzo and Forteaga.

The Bouvier family officially the third body was also identified by the EAAF and belongs to Oscar Alfredo Bouvier, who had appeared but also gunned down in Canyon in September 1976, had been buried a month later in the cemetery of Santa Fe was 21 years. Oscar Alfredo

Bouvier was born on November 5, 1955. Oscar made the secondary the Dante Alighieri College of Rosario, played first in the Union of Secondary Students (UES) in the Peronist Youth and then Montoneros. From very young, also a November 5, but in 1975 - he married Maria Gabriela Prieto, who had her only son, Peter.