Is the oil irreplaceable? Precautionary principle vs. To answer this question we analyze the evolution of different primary energy sources.
As you can see over the past 45 years, oil has been the main source of energy and its consumption has continued to grow until reaching a peak in 2008.
consumption of other fossil fuels has also been increasing but not reaching the levels of oil. It should be noted a dramatic increase in coal consumption in recent years.
and nuclear electricity generation, is significantly lower than fossil fuels. And renewable energy (geothermal, solar, wind and biofuels) just get off the ground.
But to see the relationships between different energy sources is more useful to represent the graph in relative terms. That is, as a fraction of total primary energy use at all times.
In this diagram, we can see how the share of oil peaked in 1973 followed by a sharp decline until 1985, then remains to find, to begin to fall around the year 2000.
The coal is an opposite behavior of coal. At low oil increased participation of coal. Ie part oil is being replaced by coal.
The fall of oil during 1973-85 was much less pronounced than the increase of coal, this was due to the nuclear industry development.
In the last decade, oil has fallen back, and this decline has been entirely absorbed by the carbon
. The much heralded "nuclear renaissance" has not taken place, in fact is declining slowly.
To explain, this graph is to take a look at the evolution of energy prices.
As can be seen, when the fuel price increases, their participation is reduced. It is obvious that the peak of 1973 was due to rising oil prices. Between 1985 and 2000, fuel prices were similar, so the proportion remained constants. But from the last decade there is a difference in the price of fuel.
response to the question of title. If oil is replaceable ... in fact we are already replacing.
If in the last decade has been able to meet global energy demand is due to coal has increased their participation at the cost of oil.
But the question is .... Can we replace oil at a pace that is likely to decline? As seen
coal and gas production may increase to a very high rate. In principle if they could replace oil, but this raises two problems:
1) Increased emissions of greenhouse gases
2) depletion of reserves.
gas reserves and coal are not infinite, so sooner or later (rather sooner) they also run out. So the problem will be even more serious.
What we have to replace oil?
Hydraulics develops slowly enough to maintain their participation ago to ask for miracles.
nuclear renaissance does not seem that this taking place. We can only
renewables .... if that line has barely managed to peel off soil after a decade of incentives and subsidies.
Can renewables can save the ballot?
As seen in the graph above, the evolution of the energy is very dependent on their relative price.
This is tricky, since it depends on each energy source and there are bonuses, incentives etc. But we can make some estimate. For example, with a total remuneration of 80 € / MWh of wind energy is a profitable business in Spain. This equates to about $ 60 per barrel oil equivalent.
words, wind power is already cheaper than oil but unfortunately .... not competing with oil, but gas and coal ... and these continue to be cheaper.
current Leaving the free market, oil will be replaced by gas and coal, until they are exhausted or we suffocation ... whichever comes first. It is therefore essential to correct this shortcoming of the market and promote the development of renewable energy versus fossil fuels.
Another question is ... Can renewables grow at a pace that is needed? Can I create all the necessary infrastructure in time we have?
We have a precedent that can help us resolve this issue: The development of nuclear energy. Overlaying
both curves, it appears that the renewable is following the same evolution than nuclear but with 34 years apart.
O in absolute terms about 600MTEP (figure also suggests the IEA in its last report)
This amount of energy equivalent, would compensate for a decline of 2% of global oil production in the same period time.
Multiply by 5 the current generation of renewable energy is a very difficult challenge but not impossible.
Therefore, I believe that at least through 2020, oil is perfectly substitutable.
Note: All data used in this entry are removed from the database "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010" and then I made approximations and rounding brutal. (priced above). Not intend to give accurate and precise values \u200b\u200bof energy consumption, simply give an order of magnitude.
